M Y T W O K R O N A R S ! ~ The Trader's Outpost

Commodities can be extremely profitable. I play a 15th circle trader who rarely does contract trading because it's more boring and less profitable. I spent many long hours in front of the commodities boards in all three pits in an attempt to understand what I was told was horridly and irrevocably broken. What I found was a system that not only works, but is very profitable and enjoyable. The trouble with the system lies in the inherent risks of the system and the dangers of running commodities without understanding those risks.

In order to make a successful commodity run you have to have several things. First, understandably the price that you purchase the commodity at has to be lower than the selling price... the more the better. Second, the supplier has to have enough of the commodity in stock to make the trip worth while. Thirdly, the destination pit must be willing to purchase the commodity in the amount that you want to sell. These three things are the basics... if you can master these then most of your trade routes will be good. I'll explain the deeper details after I explain how these work.

Price: The price of any commodity in a pit fluctuates. It's a good idea to know the average price for any commodity (I show these later). You never want to purchase a commodity at a price that is well OVER the average. This is because prices fluctuate. If the average price for hides is 100, and you purchase them at 150 planning on selling them for the shown 160 in the next pit... you are begging for trouble. What I have found is that on average, the higher a price is over the average, the more likely it is to drop... or even plummet.

Stock: Hmm... when WILL they buy? Simple really. Every pit will hold a certain amount of a commodity. Generally the more expensive a commodity is, the fewer the pit will hold. There are several categories of stock... sold out, going fast, etc etc etc. The REALLY important one is "Surplus!" and "Good stores". There is a breaking point... the single unit of commodities that breaks the barrier from Good Stores to Surplus. If Arthe will hold 500 units of white rice (i.e.: at the 500th unit they go to Surplus) and they currently have 100 units... you can safely trade about 390 units. I say safely 390, because stock slowly moves up and down with price... I always do about 5% fewer stock than I think a can so as not to get screwed. I show a chart below that shows the categories and how many units of a commodity it takes to move from one to another. There is a margin of error in this chart because of the way I get my info but it should be fairly good. The way I get my info is simple really. I discovered that if I try to purchase more units of a commodity than is offered the pit tells me to the unit how many they have... oh! Script time! order 200 diamonds, order 1000 wheat, order 1000 corn, etc, etc, etc.... then I look at the output. Trick is the commodities at the end of the list take a while to get to, and in some cases the stock CHANGES by the time my script runs... so the items at the end of my list are less accurate. But, you get the idea.

Also, with stock... it seems to be (and I haven't run my number-crunching against it yet) that the different pits have higher or lower norms for how much they keep. This causes some "norm" trades. I always seem to be able to do corn from Arthe to Crossing and a few other routes that are always showing up. Leth seems like a long way, but there are more "norm" routes there than between Crossing and Arthe, and is usually well worth the trip if you are fast enough to get there and back before the prices change too much.

Capacity: There is also the factor that you can only carry so many commodities. This is based on Circle, charisma, and trading experience, but I'm not sure the exact formula.

Here are my charts:

Please note... Diamonds in Crossing is horridly broke. Leave them alone till our guild GMs fix it. (Hint hint nudge nudge) These numbers are the averages for ALL of the pits together. I have charts with all the pits separated as well... but I'll spare you all. ;)

Number of units in stock vs. stock category

COMMODITY	NEARLY OUT	GOING FAST	GOOD STORES	SURPLUS
Diamonds	1 - ?	? - ?	51 - 72	83 - 100
Gold	1 - 10	11 - 51	51 - 74	77 - 100
Silver	1 - 20	21 - 100	104 - 147	162 - 200
Saffron	1 - 12	12 - 54	48 - 76	72 - 100
Pearls	1 - 10	11 - 50	51 - 70	77 - 99
Silk	1 - 10	12 - 50	2 - 73	76 - 100
Brass	1 - 15	16 - 75	79 - 109	115 - 150
Cinnamon	1 - 15	24 - 99	99 - 152	151 - 200
Limes	1 - 12	12 - 57	48 - 76	72 - 100
Slate	1 - 16	21 - 100	101 - 150	149 - 200
Purple dye	1 - 10	11 - 52	49 - 76	74 - 100
Bronze	1 - 14	14 - 63	64 - 93	95 - 124
Lead	1 - 30	36 - 142	178 - 227	225 - 300
Oranges	1 - 21	24 - 104	104 - 152	148 - 200
Lace	1 - 12	10 - 52	52 - 76	74 - 100
Velvet	1 - 12	0 - 50	50 - 76	74 - 100
Taffelberries	1 - 24	24 - 94	104 - 153	149 - 200
Amber	1 - 28	33 - 146	164 - 220	232 - 300
Copper	1 - 26	27 - 118	130 - 190	189 - 250
Acanth	1 - 20	23 - 83	107 - 149	160 - 200
Myrrh	1 - 14	14 - 63	70 - 92	97 - 125
Papyrus	1 - 14	10 - 68	81 - 113	120 - 150
Indigo	1 - 21	22 - 98	101 - 151	149 - 200
Iron ore	1 - 50	49 - 254	267 - 375	377 - 500
Barley	1 - 39	45 - 196	204 - 297	304 - 400
Oats	1 - 40	34 - 170	174 - 217	267 - 350
Wool	1 - 40	42 - 186	202 - 299	307 - 400
Wheat	1 - 43	40 - 221	215 - 303	303 - 400
Corn	1 - 43	30 - 181	243 - 299	300 - 397
Deobar oil	1 - 24	26 - 124	152 - 160	191 - 250
Cotton	1 - 49	52 - 246	272 - 368	384 - 500
Salt	1 - 50	54 - 241	298 - 370	377 - 500
Apples	1 - 36	28 - 168	196 - 263	271 - 350
Charcoal	1 - 68	72 - 348	392 - 511	548 - 700

And now this one:

This shows the Average price, the highest and lowest price I've ever seen, the number of times I have recorded the commodities boards to get this information, and (for my own morbid curiosity) the difference between the high and the low.


    Diamonds -Ave 1950 -High 2000 -Low 1900 -Num 404 -Dif 100
        Gold -Ave 1114 -High 1200 -Low 1050 -Num 404 -Dif 150
      Silver -Ave 794  -High 840  -Low 750  -Num 404 -Dif 90
     Saffron -Ave 775  -High 850  -Low 700  -Num 404 -Dif 150
      Pearls -Ave 763  -High 850  -Low 700  -Num 404 -Dif 150
        Silk -Ave 568  -High 650  -Low 500  -Num 404 -Dif 150
       Brass -Ave 448  -High 523  -Low 400  -Num 404 -Dif 123
    Cinnamon -Ave 348  -High 400  -Low 300  -Num 404 -Dif 100
       Limes -Ave 348  -High 399  -Low 300  -Num 404 -Dif 99
       Slate -Ave 360  -High 534  -Low 300  -Num 404 -Dif 234
  Purple dye -Ave 298  -High 401  -Low 24   -Num 404 -Dif 377
      Bronze -Ave 270  -High 319  -Low 230  -Num 404 -Dif 89
        Lead -Ave 253  -High 367  -Low 190  -Num 404 -Dif 177
     Oranges -Ave 247  -High 359  -Low 34   -Num 404 -Dif 325
        Lace -Ave 230  -High 305  -Low 28   -Num 404 -Dif 277
      Velvet -Ave 224  -High 250  -Low 200  -Num 404 -Dif 50
Taffelberrie -Ave 195  -High 298  -Low 14   -Num 404 -Dif 284
       Amber -Ave 182  -High 225  -Low 150  -Num 404 -Dif 75
      Copper -Ave 192  -High 274  -Low 27   -Num 404 -Dif 247
      Acanth -Ave 185  -High 282  -Low 14   -Num 404 -Dif 268
       Myrrh -Ave 192  -High 298  -Low 141  -Num 403 -Dif 157
     Papyrus -Ave 149  -High 245  -Low 20   -Num 404 -Dif 225
      Indigo -Ave 159  -High 236  -Low 109  -Num 403 -Dif 127
    Iron ore -Ave 108  -High 159  -Low 64   -Num 404 -Dif 95
      Barley -Ave 92   -High 168  -Low 10   -Num 404 -Dif 158
        Oats -Ave 92   -High 181  -Low 15   -Num 404 -Dif 166
        Wool -Ave 92   -High 140  -Low 10   -Num 404 -Dif 130
       Wheat -Ave 80   -High 179  -Low 40   -Num 404 -Dif 139
        Corn -Ave 71   -High 138  -Low 41   -Num 404 -Dif 97
  Deobar oil -Ave 69   -High 124  -Low 8    -Num 404 -Dif 116
      Cotton -Ave 69   -High 111  -Low 45   -Num 404 -Dif 66
        Salt -Ave 39   -High 83   -Low 7    -Num 404 -Dif 76
      Apples -Ave 40   -High 89   -Low 6    -Num 404 -Dif 83
    Charcoal -Ave 35   -High 52   -Low 21   -Num 404 -Dif 31

Armed with that information you should be able to successfully make commodities runs. It took many hours of work to compile all of that info, so if you want to tip my trader when you see him if this works for you that would be cool. :) Let me know if it works for you.

BTW, with this information I have successfully run 213 commodoties routes and only LOST money four times. Once because of a DR crash. Two I hit plummets risking risky runs...happens. (still was able to sell) And once another trader happed to run the same route. (oops) Two other times I almost got caught because another trader was running routes and dropped off the commodity I was running... I got out of those by either waiting a short time or running to Leth, or wherever and got lucky that they were buying. But hey, out of 64... not bad.

If you have any other questions for me email me or catch me as Benes Malchia in game. If I'm in... check the pits or anywhere inbetween... or grass eels or crocodiles.

Please, I have worked very hard on this info and am just giving it out... all I ask is that if it works for you let me know. I would like to hear about it... in or out of game.

Benes Malchia

P.S. Since that time I have started to calculate how much traders should be able to carry and have gathered data on how EXACTLY the pits change in stock and price... still expanding my knowledge. Let me know if you want more.

And now,

Commodities Handbook - Version II

Simutronics� is a registered trademark and service mark of Simutronics Corporation, All rights reserved. The DragonRealms� game is copyright � 1995-2008 Simutronics Corp. All rights reserved. DragonRealms is a trademark of Simutronics Corp. All rights reserved.