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-- == COMMODITIES HANDBOOK == --
Version 2

Wow.

It has been some time since I've written the first handbook. Over the years I've seen a ton of great feedback in reguards to it and now it's time for a new version that helps clarify what we already knew, fills in a few holes, and validates data that is years old.

Commodities can be very profitiable. Even at extremely low levels I am able to turn better profit from commodities than from contracts. Actually, as a low level trader (1-5th) I almost always lose money on contracts. At 1st level i can gain enough trading with sticks to get into doing commodity trading. I actually have a trader in TF that has never delivered contracts. :)

I spent many long hours in front of the commodities boards in all three pits in an attempt to understand what I was told was horridly and irrevocably broken. What I found was a system that not only works, but is very profitable and enjoyable. The trouble with the system lies in the inherent risks of the system and the dangers of running commodities without understanding those risks. In order to make a successful commodity run you have to have several things. First, understandably the price that you purchase the commodity at has to be lower than the selling price... the more the margin the better. Second, the supplier has to have enough of the commodity in stock to make the trip worth while. Thirdly, the destination pit must be willing to purchase the commodity in the amount that you want to sell. These three things are the basics... if you can master these then most of your trade routes will be good. I'll explain the deeper details after I explain how these work.

PRICE: The price of any commodity in a pit fluctuates. It's a good idea to know the average price for any commodity (I show these later). You never want to purchase a commodity at a price that is well OVER the average. This is because prices fluctuate. If the average price for slate is 362, and you purchase them at 450 planning on selling them for the shown 550 in the next pit... you are begging for trouble. What I have found is that on average, the higher a price is over the average, the more likely it is to drop... or even plummet.

CALLERS: Plummeting... those callers. At first I thought they were there for show, but they aren't. They are there to show one of two things. First, a caller will announce when the price of a commodity has reached an extraordinary price through slow means. (Slowly raising 1% or 2% every 5-10 minutes). More often, they will call when a price rockets up or down, but doesn't tell you which. The one thing that the caller SEEMS to mention sometimes, but never has any bearing on is the amount of the commodity in stock. The caller might scream that due to a shortage of long-haired sheep wool, the prices in Arthe Dale have rocketed to 5000 kronar, but you may get there to find that Arthe Dale will not purchase any more long-haired sheep wool. And that sucks. The only thing you can count on with the callers is that they are announcing a major change of some kind. This has about a 50% chance of giving you a great trade.

STOCK: Hmm... when WILL they buy? Simple really. Every pit will hold a certain amount of each commodity. Generally the more expensive a commodity is, the fewer the pit will hold. There are several categories of stock... sold out, going fast, etc etc etc. The REALLY important one is "Surplus!" and "Good stores". There is a breaking point... the single unit of commodities that breaks the barrier from Good Stores to Surplus. If Arthe will hold 500 units of white rice (ie: at the 500th unit they go to Surplus) and they currently have 100 units... you can safely trade about 390 units. I say safely 390, because stock slowly moves up and down with price... I always do about 5% fewer stock than I think a can so as not to get screwed. I show a chart below that shows the categories and how many units of a commodity it takes to move from one to another. There is a margin of error in this chart because of the way I get my info but it should be fairly good. The way I get my info is simple really. I discovered that if I try to purchase more units of a commodity than is offered the pit tells me to the unit how many they have... oh! Script time! order 200 diamonds, order 1000 wheat, order 1000 corn, etc, etc, etc.... then I look at the output. Trick is the commodities at the end of the list take a while to get to, and in some cases the stock CHANGES by the time my script runs... so the items at the end of my list are less accurate. But, you get the idea.

New: I have found that there is a 5 stock buffer. Ie: the chart will show pearls going surplus at 80 units, but they will ACTUALLY buy up to 85 despite still being in surplus. This allowed me to relax a little more on how many I will buy.

Found to be false: . Also, with stock... it seems to be (and I haven't run my number-crunching against it yet) that the different pits have higher or lower norms for how much they keep.

CAPACITY: There is also the factor that you can only carry so many commodities. This is based on Circle, charisma, and trading experience, but I'm not sure the exact formula.

No longer true: (thank you GMS) Please note... Diamonds in Crossing is horridly broke. Leave them alone till our guild GMs fix it. (Hint hint nudge nudge)

WAREHOUSES: Hey, what can I say... I stayed away from them for a while, but I actually like them. Very often I will see something WAY in the green. For instance, I've seen slate selling for 52... it's average is 362. I bought 40 of them. And stored them. Now, in my old system I would have cried as I passed them by since no one was buying them. But with warehouses, when you see really *really* *REALLY* good buys, you can jump on them and sell them later. But it's not for every-day trading. 
Number of units in stock vs. stock category

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
  COMMODITY   | NEARLY OUT| GOING FAST|GOOD STORES|  SURPLUS  |  AVERAGE  
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
     Diamonds |   1 -   9 |  10 -  49 |  50 -  79 |  80 - 100 | 1811 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
         Gold |   1 -   9 |  10 -  49 |  50 -  79 |  80 - 100 | 1122 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
       Silver |   1 -  19 |  20 -  99 | 100 - 159 | 160 - 165 | 784 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
      Saffron |   1 -  12 |   7 -  52 |  46 -  82 |  77 - 100 | 765 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
       Pearls |   1 -  10 |  10 -  49 |  50 -  79 |  80 - 100 | 753 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
         Silk |   1 -  10 |   8 -  49 |  50 -  81 |  79 - 100 | 577 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
        Brass |   1 -  15 |  15 -  74 |  75 - 119 | 120 - 136 | 454 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
     Cinnamon |   1 -  21 |  16 -  99 | 100 - 163 | 156 - 200 | 339 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
        Slate |   1 -  20 |  18 -  99 | 100 - 160 | 158 - 200 | 362 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
        Limes |   1 -  12 |   8 -  52 |  49 -  82 |  78 - 100 | 349 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
   Purple dye |   1 -  12 |   8 -  50 |  48 -  80 |  80 - 100 | 280 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
       Bronze |   1 -  11 |  11 -  61 |  62 -  99 | 100 - 125 | 277 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
      Oranges |   1 -  23 |  16 - 102 |  97 - 162 | 158 - 200 | 260 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
         Lead |   1 -  31 |  28 - 149 | 151 - 240 | 240 - 300 | 255 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
       Velvet |   1 -  12 |   8 -  50 |  48 -  79 |  80 - 100 | 225 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
         Lace |   1 -  12 |   8 -  50 |  48 -  79 |  80 - 100 | 237 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
Taffelberries |   1 -  22 |  16 - 102 |  98 - 160 | 156 - 200 | 192 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
        Amber |   1 -  14 | 140 - 147 | 152 - 240 | 240 - 303 | 188 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
       Copper |   1 -  26 |  23 - 122 | 126 - 199 | 200 - 250 | 194 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
       Acanth |   1 -  19 |  19 -  97 |  98 - 159 | 159 - 200 | 184 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
        Myrrh |   1 -  12 |  10 -  63 |  61 -  99 |  98 - 125 | 180 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
       Indigo |   1 -  20 |  18 -  98 |  98 - 160 | 158 - 200 | 155 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
      Papyrus |   1 -  14 |  15 -  72 |  75 - 120 | 120 - 150 | 147 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
     Iron ore |   1 -  51 |  49 - 121 | 286 - 399 | 399 - 500 | 103 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
       Barley |   1 -  42 |  37 - 193 | 210 - 320 | 318 - 400 | 81 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
         Oats |   1 -  37 |  32 - 174 | 175 - 281 | 276 - 350 | 91 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
         Wool |   1 -  39 |  39 - 196 | 203 - 319 | 319 - 400 | 85 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
        Wheat |   1 -  43 |  37 - 199 | 213 - 321 | 317 - 400 | 71 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
         Corn |   1 - 116 |  37 - 200 | 200 - 321 | 317 - 400 | 78 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
   Deobar oil |   1 -  25 |  23 - 124 | 126 - 198 | 200 - 250 | 71 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
       Cotton |   1 -  48 |  50 - 249 | 249 - 399 | 400 - 500 | 77 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
         Salt |   1 -  49 |  50 - 245 | 262 - 395 | 417 - 500 | 34 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
       Apples |   1 -  37 |  32 - 158 | 184 - 282 | 278 - 350 | 39 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------
     Charcoal |   1 -  71 |  71 - 327 | 386 - 560 | 558 - 700 | 35 
--------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------|-----------

This tells you for example.... that cotton's breaking point is at 400, and it's average price is 77.

These are really the two most important numbers. The "BREAKING" point being how many they go to SURPLUS! at... which should be your target to purchase up to. I always do 5 under, and that gives me a 10 stock cushion... the 5 under I buy, and the 5 over they will buy. That chart.... broken down... looks like this. Note, if you print anything to keep with you while you work, this is it. 
------- The Benes Master List --------
  COMMODITY   |  BREAKING |  AVERAGE  
--------------|-----------|-----------
     Diamonds |     80    | 1811 
         Gold |     80    | 1122 
       Silver |    160    | 784 
      Saffron |     80    | 765 
       Pearls |     80    | 753 
         Silk |     80    | 577 
        Brass |    120    | 454 
     Cinnamon |    160    | 339 
        Slate |    160    | 362 
        Limes |     80    | 349 
   Purple dye |     80    | 280 
       Bronze |    100    | 277 
      Oranges |    160    | 260 
         Lead |    240    | 255 
       Velvet |     80    | 225 
         Lace |     80    | 237 
Taffelberries |    160    | 192 
        Amber |    240    | 188 
       Copper |    200    | 194 
       Acanth |    160    | 184 
        Myrrh |    100    | 180 
       Indigo |    160    | 155 
      Papyrus |    120    | 147 
     Iron ore |    400    | 103 
       Barley |    320    | 81 
         Oats |    280    | 91 
         Wool |    320    | 85 
        Wheat |    320    | 71 
         Corn |    320    | 78 
   Deobar oil |    200    | 71 
       Cotton |    400    | 77 
         Salt |    400    | 34 
       Apples |    280    | 39 
     Charcoal |    560    | 35

Here is the technical data on some of the trades I have seen in running commodity runs... these are not a "best of" list... it's a snapshot of a normal trading night. 
02-01-03 12:21:30AM , 6, Slate, Arthe, 331, no , Crossing, 443, no , 33
02-01-03 12:21:30AM , 24, Wheat, Arthe, 59, no , Crossing, 97, no , 64
02-01-03 12:21:30AM , 133, Oranges, Crossing, 274, yes, Arthe, 288, no , 5
02-01-03 12:21:30AM , 9, Brass, Crossing, 404, no , Arthe, 472, no , 16
02-01-03 12:27:33AM , 133, Oranges, Crossing, 274, yes, Arthe, 288, no , 5
02-01-03 12:27:33AM , 9, Brass, Crossing, 404, no , Arthe, 472, no , 16
02-01-03 12:27:33AM , 22, Indigo, Crossing, 125, no , Arthe, 177, no , 41
02-01-03 12:34:04AM , 10, Purple dye, Arthe, 254, no , Crossing, 318, no , 25
02-01-03 12:35:08AM , 10, Purple dye, Arthe, 254, no , Crossing, 318, no , 25
02-01-03 12:37:18AM , 8, Barley, Crossing, 80, yes, Arthe, 147, no , 83
02-01-03 12:38:25AM , 8, Purple dye, Arthe, 254, no , Crossing, 318, no , 25
02-01-03 12:38:25AM , 8, Barley, Crossing, 80, yes, Arthe, 147, no , 83
02-01-03 12:38:25AM , 62, Wheat, Crossing, 58, no , Arthe, 77, no , 32
02-01-03 12:39:33AM , 8, Purple dye, Arthe, 254, no , Crossing, 318, no , 25
02-01-03 12:39:33AM , 8, Barley, Crossing, 80, yes, Arthe, 147, no , 83
02-01-03 12:39:33AM , 62, Wheat, Crossing, 58, no , Arthe, 77, no , 32

So, for this last one... I could have taken 62 units of wheat from crossing at a cost of 58 per to Arthe dale at a cost of 77 per... for a percent return of 32% on my money. The "nos" there are whether they are risky trades, ie: if I would be buying above average cost.

So there you have it... now... if you really want to dig in and see some techie stuff. I have a program available for download that you can sort through thousands and thousands of looks at pit boards. I have it sent to www.mytwokronars.com and they are making it available for download there. Enjoy.

If you have any questions about commodity trading drop me an email at nixtroy@play.net. I would even consider doing "commodity tours" as I have done in the past for people.

Commodities may be hard and nearly unscriptable, but they are the future.



-Player of Benes Malchia...






This program was provided and written by Benes. To use the program, click on the link and open it or save it to your computer. After opening, click on the load button.


Commodity Information Program



*NOTE: If you are saving to your computer, you need to right click and save this file in the same folder as the above program.

Commodities Information List